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Matchup Analysis·Flyweight
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 214 / 14
←Gandra vs Reese→
Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”
16-57 UFCLastthis month
Balanced
High Variance
Early Chaos
Moderate Wear
5'4"ht·67"reach·Orthodoxstance·305yrage
VS
Flyweight125 lbs
3R
Blue Corner

Cody Durden

“Custom Made”
18-10-116 UFCLast2mo ago
Wrestler
Declining
Output Drops Late
Moderate Wear
5'7"+3"ht·67"reach·Southpawstance·35age
CQ
Edges—
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingCostaSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingDurdenSlight edge
KO Adv.CostaClear edge
Sub Adv.CostaSlight edge
DurabilityDurden
Signals
3 signals
CARDIO

Durden's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.

AGE GAP

Durden is 5 years older than Costa.

WC TRANSITION

Durden is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Flyweight. Record at Bantamweight: 2-0.

CQ Core Edges
CQ Striking Differential
Strikes landed vs absorbed
Costa
Costa
+0.16
Durden
-0.70
CQ Grappling Threat
TD threat vs this opponent
Durden
Costa
0.34
Durden
0.56
CQ Decision Advantage
Round Win Rate
No edge
Costa
44%
Durden
51%
CQ Durability
KO exposure history
Durden
Costa
41
Average
Durden
72
Durable
2 KO lossesKO losses2 KO losses
0.29KD / fight0.25
CQ Pace Index
Combined SLpM
Moderate
Costa3.86SLpM
+
SLpM3.24Durden
7.1
LowModHighExtreme
CQ Cardio Pattern
Late-fight output
No edge
CostaOutput Drops Late-44% R1→R3
DurdenOutput Drops Late
Finish History
Costa
KO/TKO ×4
Finish rate (wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped rate (losses)
67%
2/3
Durden
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish rate (wins)
29%
2/7
Stopped rate (losses)
75%
6/8
Edge & Exposure
Costa
EdgeKO Threat

Finishes most opponents by KO/TKO. Can end the fight with a single clean shot.

ExposureChin Question

KO/TKO vulnerability is above division average. A clean power shot carries more consequence here.

Durden
EdgeGrappling Dominant

Top-tier takedown threat for this division. Consistently forces the fight to the mat.

ExposureFades Hard

Output drops significantly in later rounds. Extended fights are a structural disadvantage.

Opposition Quality
Costa4–3UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
1–2
Record (3)
+1.8
Str Diff/Min
100%
Finish (W)
Durden7–8UFC
vs. Winning-Record Opps
2–6
Record (9)
-0.4
Str Diff/Min
0%
Finish (W)
Division Percentile Ranks
CostaFlyweightDurden
46th
Striking Differential
30th
22nd
Grappling Threat
91st
40th
Round Win Rate
45th
91st
TD Defense
33rd
11th
Durability
34th
89th
Finishing Rate
13th
Recent Form
Costa
Stat
Durden
3.193.86 career
↓0.67
SLpMOutput
↓0.65
2.593.24 career
4.183.70 career
↑0.48
SApMAbsorbed
↓1.32
2.623.94 career
4.533.57 career
↑0.96
TD AttAttempts/15m
⚠↓1.79
6.288.07 career
—
Sub AttAttempts/15m
↓0.31
0.390.70 career
Stat Breakdown
Finishes
Costa14% distance
Finish 86%Decision 14%
Durden50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Costa 7 UFC fights·Durden 16 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Costa
9.0min
Durden
10.1min
Combined Distance Rate
39%of fights go the distance
CQ Finish Risk
KO Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
CostaTO KNOCK OUTDurden
52
High
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins4
Total UFC wins4
Durden's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses8
DurdenTO KNOCK OUTCosta
36
Elevated
KO Wins
KO/TKO wins1
Total UFC wins7
Costa's KO Losses
KO/TKO losses2
Total UFC losses3
Sub Danger·↑ SCORE = ↑ RISK
CostaTO SUBMITDurden
28
Elevated
Sub Wins
Submission wins0
Total UFC wins4
Durden's Sub Losses
Sub losses4
Total UFC losses8
DurdenTO SUBMITCosta
18
Low
Sub Wins
Submission wins1
Total UFC wins7
Costa's Sub Losses
Sub losses0
Total UFC losses3
CostaWin MethodDurden
100%
KO / TKO
14%
0%
Submission
14%
0%
Decision
71%
4 UFC wins · 4 KO7 UFC wins · 1 KO · 1 Sub · 5 Dec
Costa
Loss Method
Durden
67%
KO / TKO
25%
0%
Submission
50%
33%
Decision
25%
3 UFC losses · 2 KO · 1 Dec8 UFC losses · 2 KO · 4 Sub · 2 Dec
Costa6 stoppages · 6 KO
R1
1
R2
3
R3
2
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
All stoppages
WKOMatt SchnellR1 · 2:28
WKOStewart NicollR2 · 4:56
LKOAlden CoriaR3 · 0:47
WKOKevin BorjasR2 · 1:35
WKOJimmy FlickR2 · 1:03
Durden8 stoppages · 3 KO · 5 Sub
R1
3
R2
5
R3
0
R1R2R3
KO Win
KO Loss
Sub Win
Sub Loss
All stoppages
LSubAllan NascimentoR2 · 3:13
LKOJose OchoaR2 · 0:11
WSubMatt SchnellR2 · 0:29
LKOBruno SilvaR2 · 2:58
LSubTagir UlanbekovR2 · 4:25
Historical Context
Costa — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
UFC Fights·7 fights
W
Matt SchnellCatch Weight
KO/TKO
R12:28
Jun '26
19 SS (83%)·8 abs·5s ctrl·1 kd
W
Stewart NicollFLY
KO/TKO
R24:56
Apr '26
43 SS (48%)·47 abs·2/3 td·78s ctrl·1 kd
L
Alden CoriaFLY
KO/TKO
R30:47
Sep '25
12 SS (21%)·42 abs·1/4 td·2 td taken·84s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Kevin BorjasFLY
KO/TKO
R21:35
May '24
46 SS (53%)·18 abs·0/2 td·43s ctrl·1 kd
L
Steve ErcegFLY
U-DEC
R3
Nov '23
54 SS (56%)·74 abs·1/6 td·1 td taken·74s ctrl
W
Jimmy FlickFLY
KO/TKO
R21:03
Jun '23
65 SS (71%)·14 abs·50s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Durden — Recent Fights
Opponent
MethodRndDate
W
Jafel FilhoBW
U-DEC
R3
Apr '26
34 SS (47%)·23 abs·5/5 td·2 td taken·314s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Nyamjargal TumendemberelFLY
U-DEC
R3
Mar '26
8 SS (38%)·25 abs·3/8 td·4 td taken·290s ctrl
L
Allan NascimentoCatch Weight
SUB
R23:13
Nov '25
57 SS (45%)·52 abs·1/3 td·5s ctrl
L
Jose OchoaFLY
KO/TKO
R20:11
Jun '25
9 SS (22%)·30 abs·2/4 td·102s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Joshua VanFLY
U-DEC
R3
Dec '24
70 SS (32%)·165 abs·2/8 td·194s ctrl
W
Matt SchnellBW
SUB
R20:29
Sep '24
34 SS (44%)·40 abs·10s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Matt SchnellSame result
W
Costa
KO/TKO·R1·2026
W
Durden
Sub·R2·2024
Jimmy FlickSplit result
W
Costa
KO/TKO·R2·2023
L
Durden
Sub·R1·2020
Matchup·FLY·3R
↑UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
14/14←→
Switch to Full Stats for deeper analysis.
Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”
16-57 UFCthis month
5'4"ht67"reachOrthodox30 yrs
VS·FLY·3R
Blue Corner

Cody Durden

“Custom Made”
18-10-116 UFC2mo ago
5'7"+3"ht67"reachSouthpaw35 yrs
CQ
Edges
CageQuant signals — dimensions where one fighter holds a statistically meaningful advantage
StrikingCostaSlight edge
DecisionNo edge
GrapplingDurdenSlight edge
DurabilityDurden
KO Adv.CostaClear edge
Sub Adv.CostaSlight edge
Signals
3
CARDIODurden's output and strike differential trend downward in later rounds.
AGE GAPDurden is 5 years older than Costa.
WC TRANSITIONDurden is in their 3rd fight into a move up from Flyweight. Record at Bantamweight: 2-0.
CQ Core Edges
CQStriking Edge
Who's winning the striking exchange
Costa
Costa+0.16
Durden-0.70
CQGrappling
Takedown threat vs this opponent's defense
Durden
Costa0.34
Durden0.56
CQDecision
CQ round win rate
No edge
Costa44%
Durden51%
CQDurability
KO resistance — higher is better
Durden
Costa
41Average
Durden
72Durable
Stats
Costa
Durden
Striking
3.86SS Landed / min3.24
46%Str Acc44%
3.70SS Absorbed / min3.94
56%Str Def50%
0.57KD / fight0.06
Grappling
0.77TD / min3.99
86%TD Def56%
0.40Sub Att · /15m0.70
100%Sub Def73%
Finish History
Costa
KO/TKO ×4
Finish Rate (Wins)
100%
4/4
Stopped Rate (Losses)
67%
2/3
Durden
KO/TKO ×1Sub ×1
Finish Rate (Wins)
29%
2/7
Stopped Rate (Losses)
75%
6/8
Costa14% distance
Finish 86%Decision 14%
Durden50% distance
Finish 50%Decision 50%
Costa 7 UFC fights·Durden 16 UFC fights
Avg Fight Length
Costa
9.0min
Durden
10.1min
Combined Distance Rate
39%of fights go the distance
Win & Loss Method
CostaWinDurden
100%
KO
14%
0%
Sub
14%
0%
Dec
71%
4 wins4 KO
5 Dec1 Sub1 KO7 wins
CostaLossDurden
67%
KO
25%
0%
Sub
50%
33%
Dec
25%
3 losses2 KO1 Dec
2 Dec4 Sub2 KO8 losses
CQ Finish Risk
Costa
to knock out
Durden
52High
Durden
to knock out
Costa
36Elevated
Costa
to submit
Durden
28Elevated
Durden
to submit
Costa
18Low
Recent Form
Costa
Stat
Durden
3.19
3.86 career
↓0.67
SLpMOutput
↓0.65
2.59
3.24 career
4.18
3.70 career
↑0.48
SApMAbsorbed
↓1.32
2.62
3.94 career
4.53
3.57 career
↑0.96
TD AttAtt/15m
↓1.79
6.28
8.07 career
—
SubAtt/15m
↓0.31
0.39
0.70 career
Full Stats unlocks4 more sections
Per-Fight Stats
Opposition Quality
Percentile Ranks
Round Breakdown
Historical Context
Costa—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
UFC Fights·7 fights
W
Matt SchnellCatch Weight Bout
KO/TKO · R1 · 2:28 · Jun '26
19 SS (83%)·8 abs·5s ctrl·1 kd
W
Stewart NicollFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 4:56 · Apr '26
43 SS (48%)·47 abs·2/3 td·78s ctrl·1 kd
L
Alden CoriaFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R3 · 0:47 · Sep '25
12 SS (21%)·42 abs·1/4 td·2 td taken·84s ctrl·2 sub att
W
Kevin BorjasFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:35 · May '24
46 SS (53%)·18 abs·0/2 td·43s ctrl·1 kd
L
Steve ErcegFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Nov '23
54 SS (56%)·74 abs·1/6 td·1 td taken·74s ctrl
W
Jimmy FlickFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 1:03 · Jun '23
65 SS (71%)·14 abs·50s ctrl·1 kd
View full fight log →
Durden—Recent Fights
OpponentMethodRndDate
W
Jafel FilhoBW Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Apr '26
34 SS (47%)·23 abs·5/5 td·2 td taken·314s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Nyamjargal TumendemberelFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Mar '26
8 SS (38%)·25 abs·3/8 td·4 td taken·290s ctrl
L
Allan NascimentoCatch Weight Bout
SUB · R2 · 3:13 · Nov '25
57 SS (45%)·52 abs·1/3 td·5s ctrl
L
Jose OchoaFLY Bout
KO/TKO · R2 · 0:11 · Jun '25
9 SS (22%)·30 abs·2/4 td·102s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Joshua VanFLY Bout
U-DEC · R3 · Dec '24
70 SS (32%)·165 abs·2/8 td·194s ctrl
W
Matt SchnellBW Bout
SUB · R2 · 0:29 · Sep '24
34 SS (44%)·40 abs·10s ctrl·1 sub att
View full fight log →
Common Opponents
Jimmy FlickSplit result
W
Costa
KO/TKO·R2·2023
L
Durden
Sub·R1·2020
Matt SchnellSame result
W
Costa
KO/TKO·R1·2026
W
Durden
Sub·R2·2024
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X