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Rafael Natal lands 3.1 and absorbs 2.5 significant strikes per minute. Output and absorption are close.

Rafael Natal's takedown attempts are present but not a primary factor.

Rafael Natal wins 66% of rounds across 44 scored. Wins more rounds than concedes in the majority of fights.

Rafael Natal has 4 KO/TKO losses in 7 total UFC losses. Absorbs 0.35 knockdowns per fight. Durability score of 45 out of 99, average for the division.

Rafael Natal's last fight was over 107 months ago.

Rafael Natal is 43 years old.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Middleweight
“Sapo”

Rafael Natal

21-9-117 UFC
Grappler
Form
· 3L
Inactive
High Wear
6'0"ht·77"reach·Orthodoxstance·43age
Last fightLEryk Anders·KO/TKO·R1·8yr ago
Fighter Context
9–7–1UFC·
1KO
·
1Sub
·
7Dec
·
12.4min/fight
·
212UFC min
vs. Winning-Record Opps
3–6(9 fights)
·
0%finish rate
·
-0.0str diff/min
CQ Key Stats
Striking Differential
+0.62
Neutral

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.347
Average

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
45
Average

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
66%
Strong

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Rafael Natal — 3.10 significant strikes per minute, 47% striking accuracy, absorbs 2.48 strikes per minute.

Natal
Leg Kicker
Middleweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min3.10
Str. Accuracy47%
656UFC landed/1,370attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
−1.1 vs avg2.48
Str. Defense57%
KD Rate / fight0.29
5UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / fight0.35
CQ KO Power
0.76
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
58%
Body
14%
Leg
28%
By Position
Distance66%
/
Clinch12%
/
Ground22%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 117 rounds
Round 214 rounds
Round 313 rounds
Avg. Landed141813
Avg. Absorbed11916
Avg. Net+3+9-2
Grappling

Rafael Natal — 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 34% takedown accuracy, 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 77% takedown defense.

Natal
Sub Hunter
·189s ctrlActive Control
Middleweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.55
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.44
TD Accuracy34%
36UFC landed/105attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.50
1UFC wins/7attempted
Defense
Elite TD Def
TD Defense77%
27UFC defended/35opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Sub Proof
Finishing

Rafael Natal — 9 UFC wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 7 decision), 22% finish rate.

Finish Rate
22%
Decision Fighter
div avg 61%
How They Lose
7UFC losses
Win Breakdown
KO / TKO1 / 9
Submission1 / 9
Decision7 / 9
KD → Finish
1/3Moderate
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO4 / 7
Submission0 / 7
Decision3 / 7
Loss Pattern
4 of 7 losses by finish in R1–R2
Finish Round Distribution
Finish WinsFinish LossesR1R2R3
KO/TKO W
KO/TKO L
SUB W
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
50%
3 of 6 rounds won following a lost round
Decision Margin
1.5pts
W5 dec
2.0pts
L2 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
8UD
·
2SD
·
1MD
·
18%split rate
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
sig. strikes stable across career. Second-half avg 37 vs 41 first half
0+21+42+63+84avgD20102011201220132014201520162017

17 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
0.51.62.8R1R2R3
R1n=17
R2n=14
R3n=13
Outputsig strikes / min
2.8
3.6
2.9
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.3
1.9
3.4
Diff
+0.5
+1.7
-0.5

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend
KD Abs
▼TD Acc-100%L3
-31%46%123%LWWWWLLL

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Elite oppVeteran opp
Natal — 17 UFC Fights

Rafael Natal — UFC fight record: 9 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw.

Result
Method
17 fights
L
Eryk Anders
MW
KO/TKO R1 · 2:54Jul '17
-9
·14 SS (61%)·23 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken
L
Tim BoetschVeteran
MW
KO/TKO R1 · 3:22Nov '16
-9
·5 SS (28%)·14 abs·0/1 td·1 kd taken
L
Robert Whittaker
MW
U-DEC R3Apr '16
-27
·62 SS (45%)·89 abs·0/4 td
W
Kevin Casey
MW
KO/TKO R3 · 3:37Jan '16
+38
·54 SS (62%)·16 abs·4/7 td·331s ctrl·1 kd landed
W
Uriah Hall
MW
S-DEC R3May '15
+2
·45 SS (44%)·43 abs·1/11 td·1 td taken·175s ctrl
W
Tom Watson
MW
U-DEC R3Jan '15
+38
·67 SS (44%)·29 abs·8/13 td·210s ctrl
W
Chris Camozzi
MW
S-DEC R3Sep '14
-31
·36 SS (49%)·67 abs·2/12 td·164s ctrl
L
Ed HermanVeteran
MW
U-DEC R3May '14
-16
·35 SS (48%)·51 abs·1/6 td·1 td taken·286s ctrl
L
Tim Kennedy
MW
KO/TKO R1 · 4:40Nov '13
0
·13 SS (37%)·13 abs·0/1 td·1 kd taken
W
Tor Troeng
MW
U-DEC R3Sep '13
+30
·39 SS (63%)·9 abs·0/2 td·483s ctrl·2 kd landed·1 sub att
All Fighters
Middleweight
“Sapo”

Rafael Natal

21-9-117 UFC
Form
3L
6'0"ht·77"reach·Orthodoxstance·43age
Last fightLEryk Anders·KO/TKO·8yr ago
Fighter Context
9–7–1UFC·
1KO
·
1Sub
·
7Dec
·
12.4min/fight
·
212UFC min
vs. Winning Record3–6
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
+0.62

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.347

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
45

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
66%

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking
Natal
Middleweight avg
Leg Kicker
Sig. Strikes / Min3.10
Str. Accuracy47%
656UFC landed/1,370attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
−1.1 vs avg2.48
Str. Defense57%
KD Rate / Fight0.29
5UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / Fight0.35
CQ KO Power
0.76
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
58%
Body
14%
Leg
28%
By Position
Dist66%
Clinch12%
Ground22%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=17
R2
n=14
R3
n=13
Landed141813
Absorbed11916
Net+3+9-2
Grappling
Natal
Middleweight avg
Sub Hunter
189s ctrlActive Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min2.55
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.44
TD Accuracy34%
36UFC landed/105attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min0.50
1UFC wins/7attempted
Defense
Elite TD Def
TD Defense77%
27UFC defended/35opp. attempts
Sub Defense0 loss / 2 attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
22%
Decision Fighter
Win Methods
1KO/TKO
1Sub
7Dec
Loss Methods
4KO/TKO
0Sub
3Dec
Finish Round Distribution
R1
R2
R3
KO (W)
KO (L)
Sub (W)
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
50%3 of 6 rounds
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
1.5pts
W5 dec
2.0pts
L2 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
8UD
·
2SD
·
1MD
·
18%split rate
Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.
Pace & Cardio
Output
Absorbed
Diff
0.51.62.8R1R2R3
R1n=17
R2n=14
R3n=13
Outputsig strikes / min
2.8
3.6
2.9
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.3
1.9
3.4
Diff
+0.5
+1.7
-0.5

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Natal — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Eryk AndersMW
KO/TKO·R1·Jul '17
14 SS (61%)·23 abs·0/1 td·1 td taken·1 kd taken
L
Tim BoetschVeteranMW
KO/TKO·R1·Nov '16
5 SS (28%)·14 abs·0/1 td·1 kd taken
L
Robert WhittakerMW
U-DEC·R3·Apr '16
62 SS (45%)·89 abs·0/4 td
W
Kevin CaseyMW
KO/TKO·R3·Jan '16
54 SS (62%)·16 abs·4/7 td·331s ctrl·1 kd
W
Uriah HallMW
S-DEC·R3·May '15
45 SS (44%)·43 abs·1/11 td·1 td taken·175s ctrl
W
Tom WatsonMW
U-DEC·R3·Jan '15
67 SS (44%)·29 abs·8/13 td·210s ctrl
W
Chris CamozziMW
S-DEC·R3·Sep '14
36 SS (49%)·67 abs·2/12 td·164s ctrl
L
Ed HermanVeteranMW
U-DEC·R3·May '14
35 SS (48%)·51 abs·1/6 td·1 td taken·286s ctrl
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GuideContactTermsPrivacy
CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X