Fighter Profile›Light Heavyweight

“Bearjew”

Paul Craig

17-10-1 (1 NC)21 UFC

Balanced

Form

Declining

Title Fight

High Variance

Early Chaos

Output Drops Late

High Wear

6'3"ht·76"reach·Orthodoxstance·38age

Last fightLModestas Bukauskas·KO/TKO·R1·8mo ago

Fighter Context

9–10–1UFC1 NC·

3KO

6Sub

0Dec

8.0min/fight

168UFC min

vs. Winning-Record Opps

6–8(16 fights)

100%finish rate

-0.1str diff/min

vs. Veteran Opps

2–1(4 fights)

100%finish rate

-0.7str diff/min

CQ Key Stats

Striking Differential

-0.54

Deficit

35%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.075

Average

46%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

Low

19%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

26%

Passive

8%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Craig

Body Attacker

Light Heavyweight avg

Sig. Strikes / Min2.50

Str. Accuracy45%

421UFC landed/928attempted

Sig. Absorbed / min

−0.9 vs avg3.04

Str. Defense43%

KD Rate / fight0.05

1UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / fight0.19

CQ KO Power

Below Avg2%ile0.24

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

50%

Body

32%

Leg

18%

By Position

Distance67%

Clinch14%

Ground19%

Sig. Strikes by Round

	Round 121 rounds	Round 211 rounds	Round 37 rounds
Avg. Landed	11	13	7
Avg. Absorbed	13	13	14
Avg. Net	-2	0	-7

Grappling

Craig

Sub Hunter

·65s ctrlAverage Control

Light Heavyweight avg

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min1.43

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.58

TD Accuracy18%

16UFC landed/85attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.30

6UFC wins/15attempted

Defense

Leaky TD Def

TD Defense35%

6UFC defended/17opp. attempts

Sub Defense

Holds Ground

Finishing

Finish Rate

100%

Elite Finisher

div avg 64%

How They Lose

10UFC losses

Win Breakdown

KO / TKO3 / 9

Submission6 / 9

Decision0 / 9

Loss Breakdown

KO / TKO6 / 10

Submission2 / 10

Decision2 / 10

Loss Pattern

6 of 10 losses by finish in R1–R2

Fast and versatile. 7 of 9 finishes inside R1-R2, by both KO and submission

Finish Round Distribution

KO/TKO W

KO/TKO L

SUB W

SUB L

Cards & Decisions

Recovery Rate

—

More data needed.

Decision Margin

—

W0 dec

3.0pts

L2 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

2UD

1SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory

Win

Loss

D/NC

Elite opp (15+ wins)

Veteran opp (8+ wins)

Div. change

sig. strikes stable across career. Second-half avg 21 vs 19 first half

21 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio

Output Drops Late

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=21

R2n=11

R3n=7

Outputsig strikes / min

2.5

3.1

1.7

Absorbedsig strikes / min

2.9

3.1

3.4

Diff

-0.4

-0.0

-1.7

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend

KD Abs

▼TD Acc-100%L3

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Elite oppVeteran opp

Craig — 21 UFC Fights

Result

Method

21 fights

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO R1 · 5:00Sep '25

-16

·6 SS (43%)·22 abs·0/2 td·45s ctrl

Rodolfo Bellato

Could Not Co… R1 · 4:59Jun '25

·17 SS (63%)·10 abs·0/6 td·1 td taken·34s ctrl

⚠ Illegal upkick

Bo Nickal

U-DEC R3Nov '24

-7

·47 SS (36%)·54 abs

Caio Borralho

KO/TKO R2 · 2:10May '24

-14

·22 SS (46%)·36 abs·0/6 td·30s ctrl·1 kd taken

Brendan AllenVeteran

TITLE

SUB R3 · 0:38Nov '23

-26

·6 SS (43%)·32 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken·34s ctrl·1 sub att

Andre Muniz

KO/TKO R2 · 4:40Jul '23

+16

·40 SS (49%)·24 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·176s ctrl·1 sub att

Johnny Walker

KO/TKO R1 · 2:16Jan '23

-13

·3 SS (38%)·16 abs·1 kd taken

Volkan Oezdemir

U-DEC R3Jul '22

-39

·33 SS (26%)·72 abs·0/15 td·1 td taken·7s ctrl

Nikita KrylovVeteran

SUB R1 · 3:57Mar '22

-17

·2 SS (67%)·19 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·1 sub att

Jamahal Hill

KO/TKO R1 · 1:59Jun '21

+22

·23 SS (92%)·1 abs·0/1 td·3 sub att

All Fighters

Light Heavyweight

“Bearjew”

Paul Craig

17-10-1 (1 NC)21 UFC

Form

6'3"ht·76"reach·Orthodoxstance·38age

Last fightLModestas Bukauskas·KO/TKO·8mo ago

Fighter Context

9–10–1UFC1 NC·

3KO

6Sub

0Dec

8.0min/fight

168UFC min

vs. Winning Record6–8

vs. Veterans (8+ W)2–1

CQ Key Stats

Str. Differential

-0.54

35%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat

0.075

46%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability

19%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate

26%

8%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Craig

Light Heavyweight avg

Body Attacker

Sig. Strikes / Min2.50

Str. Accuracy45%

421UFC landed/928attempted

Sig. Absorbed / Min

−0.9 vs avg3.04

Str. Defense43%

KD Rate / Fight0.05

1UFC knockdowns

KD Absorbed / Fight0.19

CQ KO Power

Below Avg2%ile0.24

Strike Distribution

By Target

Head

50%

Body

32%

Leg

18%

By Position

Dist67%

Clinch14%

Ground19%

Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)

	R1 n=21	R2 n=11	R3 n=7
Landed	11	13	7
Absorbed	13	13	14
Net	-2	0	-7

Grappling

Craig

Light Heavyweight avg

Sub Hunter

65s ctrlAverage Control

Offense

TD Landed / 15 Min1.43

TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.58

TD Accuracy18%

16UFC landed/85attempted

Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.30

6UFC wins/15attempted

Defense

Leaky TD Def

TD Defense35%

6UFC defended/17opp. attempts

Sub Defense2 loss / 6 attempts

Finishing

Finish Rate

100%

Elite Finisher

Win Methods

3KO/TKO

6Sub

0Dec

Loss Methods

6KO/TKO

2Sub

2Dec

Finish Round Distribution

KO (W)

KO (L)

Sub (W)

Sub (L)

Cards & Decisions

Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.

—More data needed.

Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.

—

W0 dec

3.0pts

L2 dec

field avg 1.95 pts

Decision Types

2UD

1SD

0MD

33%split rate

Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.

Pace & Cardio

Output Drops Late

Output

Absorbed

Diff

R1n=21

R2n=11

R3n=7

Outputsig strikes / min

2.5

3.1

1.7

Absorbedsig strikes / min

2.9

3.1

3.4

Diff

-0.4

-0.0

-1.7

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Craig — UFC Fight Log

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO·R1·Sep '25

6 SS (43%)·22 abs·0/2 td·45s ctrl

Rodolfo Bellato

Could Not Co…·R1·Jun '25

17 SS (63%)·10 abs·0/6 td·1 td taken·34s ctrl

Bo Nickal

U-DEC·R3·Nov '24

47 SS (36%)·54 abs

Caio Borralho

KO/TKO·R2·May '24

22 SS (46%)·36 abs·0/6 td·30s ctrl·1 kd taken

Brendan AllenVeteranTITLE

SUB·R3·Nov '23

6 SS (43%)·32 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken·34s ctrl·1 sub

Andre Muniz

KO/TKO·R2·Jul '23

40 SS (49%)·24 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·176s ctrl·1 sub

Johnny Walker

KO/TKO·R1·Jan '23

3 SS (38%)·16 abs·1 kd taken

Volkan Oezdemir

U-DEC·R3·Jul '22

33 SS (26%)·72 abs·0/15 td·1 td taken·7s ctrl

Round 121 rounds

Round 211 rounds

Round 37 rounds

Avg. Landed

Avg. Absorbed

Avg. Net

-2

-7

n=21

n=11

n=7

Landed

Absorbed

Net

-2

-7