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Paul Craig absorbs 3.0 and lands 2.5 significant strikes per minute. Concedes more than outputs. Negative striking margin.

Paul Craig's striking output and strike differential both decline in later rounds.

Paul Craig's takedown attempts are present but not a primary weapon.

Paul Craig wins 26% of rounds across 39 scored. Concedes more rounds than wins across fights on record.

Paul Craig has 6 KO/TKO losses in 10 total UFC losses. Absorbs 0.19 knockdowns per fight. Durability score of 32 out of 99, low for the division.

Paul Craig finishes 100% of wins by KO/TKO or submission.

Paul Craig is 38 years old.

All Fighters
Fighter Profile›Light Heavyweight
“Bearjew”

Paul Craig

17-10-1 (1 NC)21 UFC
Balanced
Form
Declining
Title Fight
High Variance
Early Chaos
Output Drops Late
High Wear
6'3"ht·76"reach·Orthodoxstance·38age
Last fightLModestas Bukauskas·KO/TKO·R1·10mo ago
Fighter Context
9–10–1UFC1 NC·
3KO
·
6Sub
·
0Dec
·
8.0min/fight
·
168UFC min
vs. Winning-Record Opps
6–8(16 fights)
·
100%finish rate
·
-0.1str diff/min
vs. Veteran Opps
2–1(4 fights)
·
100%finish rate
·
-0.7str diff/min
CQ Key Stats
Striking Differential
-0.54
Deficit
35%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.076
Average
45%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
32
Low
20%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
26%
Passive
7%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking

Paul Craig — 2.50 significant strikes per minute, 45% striking accuracy, absorbs 3.04 strikes per minute.

Craig
Body Attacker
Light Heavyweight avg
Sig. Strikes / Min2.50
Str. Accuracy45%
421UFC landed/928attempted
Sig. Absorbed / min
−0.9 vs avg3.04
Str. Defense43%
KD Rate / fight0.05
1UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / fight0.19
CQ KO Power
Below Avg3%ile0.24
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
50%
Body
32%
Leg
18%
By Position
Distance67%
/
Clinch14%
/
Ground19%
Sig. Strikes by Round
Round 121 rounds
Round 211 rounds
Round 37 rounds
Avg. Landed11137
Avg. Absorbed131314
Avg. Net-20-7
Grappling

Paul Craig — 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, 18% takedown accuracy, 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 35% takedown defense.

Craig
Sub Hunter
·65s ctrlAverage Control
Light Heavyweight avg
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min1.43
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.58
TD Accuracy18%
16UFC landed/85attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.30
6UFC wins/15attempted
Defense
Leaky TD Def
TD Defense35%
6UFC defended/17opp. attempts
Sub Defense
Holds Ground
Finishing

Paul Craig — 9 UFC wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submission), 100% finish rate.

Finish Rate
100%
Elite Finisher
div avg 64%
How They Lose
10UFC losses
Win Breakdown
KO / TKO3 / 9
Submission6 / 9
Decision0 / 9
Loss Breakdown
KO / TKO6 / 10
Submission2 / 10
Decision2 / 10
Loss Pattern
6 of 10 losses by finish in R1–R2
Fast and versatile. 7 of 9 finishes inside R1-R2, by both KO and submission
Finish Round Distribution
Finish WinsFinish LossesR1R2R3
KO/TKO W
KO/TKO L
SUB W
SUB L
Cards & Decisions
Recovery Rate
—
More data needed.
Decision Margin
—
W0 dec
3.0pts
L2 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
2UD
·
1SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory
Win
Loss
D/NC
Elite opp (15+ wins)
Veteran opp (8+ wins)
Div. change
sig. strikes stable across career. Second-half avg 21 vs 19 first half
0+15+29+44+59avg↗↗DNC2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

21 UFC fights · hover for details · colored line = 3-fight rolling avg

Pace & Cardio
Output Drops Late
Output
Absorbed
Diff
-0.31.22.7R1R2R3
R1n=21
R2n=11
R3n=7
Outputsig strikes / min
2.5
3.1
1.7
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.9
3.1
3.4
Diff
-0.4
-0.0
-1.7

Per-round averages across career · partial final rounds included at actual elapsed time · rounds below 5 min. career total suppressed · dashed lines = division avg

Last 8 Fights — Trend
KD Abs
▼TD Acc-100%L3
-76%16%108%LLWLLLNCL

Last 8 UFC fights · Absorbed & Strike Diff = index vs career avg (1.0 = avg, 0 = breakeven) · Orange dots = KDs absorbed

Elite oppVeteran opp
Craig — 21 UFC Fights

Paul Craig — UFC fight record: 9 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw.

Result
Method
21 fights
L
Modestas Bukauskas
LHW
KO/TKO R1 · 5:00Sep '25
-16
·6 SS (43%)·22 abs·0/2 td·45s ctrl
NC
Rodolfo Bellato
LHW
Could Not Co… R1 · 4:59Jun '25
+7
·17 SS (63%)·10 abs·0/6 td·1 td taken·34s ctrl
⚠ Illegal upkick
L
Bo Nickal
MW
U-DEC R3Nov '24
-7
·47 SS (36%)·54 abs
L
Caio Borralho
MW
KO/TKO R2 · 2:10May '24
-14
·22 SS (46%)·36 abs·0/6 td·30s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Brendan AllenVeteran
TITLEMW
SUB R3 · 0:38Nov '23
-26
·6 SS (43%)·32 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken·34s ctrl·1 sub att
W
Andre Muniz
MW
KO/TKO R2 · 4:40Jul '23
+16
·40 SS (49%)·24 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·176s ctrl·1 sub att
L
Johnny Walker
LHW
KO/TKO R1 · 2:16Jan '23
-13
·3 SS (38%)·16 abs·1 kd taken
L
Volkan Oezdemir
LHW
U-DEC R3Jul '22
-39
·33 SS (26%)·72 abs·0/15 td·1 td taken·7s ctrl
W
Nikita KrylovVeteran
LHW
SUB R1 · 3:57Mar '22
-17
·2 SS (67%)·19 abs·1/1 td·1 td taken·1 sub att
W
Jamahal Hill
LHW
KO/TKO R1 · 1:59Jun '21
+22
·23 SS (92%)·1 abs·0/1 td·3 sub att
All Fighters
Light Heavyweight
“Bearjew”

Paul Craig

17-10-1 (1 NC)21 UFC
Form
6'3"ht·76"reach·Orthodoxstance·38age
Last fightLModestas Bukauskas·KO/TKO·10mo ago
Fighter Context
9–10–1UFC1 NC·
3KO
·
6Sub
·
0Dec
·
8.0min/fight
·
168UFC min
vs. Winning Record6–8
vs. Veterans (8+ W)2–1
CQ Key Stats
Str. Differential
-0.54
35%ile

Significant strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute. Positive values indicate a net striking advantage.

Adj. TD Threat
0.076
45%ile

CageQuant derived signal for measuring takedown offense adjusted for average division opponents.

Durability
32
20%ile

CageQuant derived signal that measures how well a fighter holds up to damage. Based on stoppage history and knockdowns absorbed over their career.

Round Win Rate
26%
7%ile

CageQuant derived signal. Completed rounds won, scored by CageQuant's proprietary formula rather than official judging.

Striking
Craig
Light Heavyweight avg
Body Attacker
Sig. Strikes / Min2.50
Str. Accuracy45%
421UFC landed/928attempted
Sig. Absorbed / Min
−0.9 vs avg3.04
Str. Defense43%
KD Rate / Fight0.05
1UFC knockdowns
KD Absorbed / Fight0.19
CQ KO Power
Below Avg3%ile0.24
Strike Distribution
By Target
Head
50%
Body
32%
Leg
18%
By Position
Dist67%
Clinch14%
Ground19%
Sig. Strikes by Round(career avg per round)
R1
n=21
R2
n=11
R3
n=7
Landed11137
Absorbed131314
Net-20-7
Grappling
Craig
Light Heavyweight avg
Sub Hunter
65s ctrlAverage Control
Offense
TD Landed / 15 Min1.43
TD Attempts / 15 MinUFC ONLY7.58
TD Accuracy18%
16UFC landed/85attempted
Sub Attempts / 15 Min1.30
6UFC wins/15attempted
Defense
Leaky TD Def
TD Defense35%
6UFC defended/17opp. attempts
Sub Defense2 loss / 6 attempts
Finishing
Finish Rate
100%
Elite Finisher
Win Methods
3KO/TKO
6Sub
0Dec
Loss Methods
6KO/TKO
2Sub
2Dec
Finish Round Distribution
R1
R2
R3
KO (W)
KO (L)
Sub (W)
Sub (L)
Cards & Decisions
Recovery RateRounds won after a lost round.
—More data needed.
Decision MarginAvg pts/round on judges' scorecards.
—
W0 dec
3.0pts
L2 dec
field avg 1.95 pts
Decision Types
2UD
·
1SD
·
0MD
·
33%split rate
Career Trajectory chart available on desktop.
Pace & Cardio
Output Drops Late
Output
Absorbed
Diff
-0.31.22.7R1R2R3
R1n=21
R2n=11
R3n=7
Outputsig strikes / min
2.5
3.1
1.7
Absorbedsig strikes / min
2.9
3.1
3.4
Diff
-0.4
-0.0
-1.7

Per-round career averages · partial rounds time-adjusted · dashed = division avg

Craig — UFC Fight Log
|
L
Modestas BukauskasLHW
KO/TKO·R1·Sep '25
6 SS (43%)·22 abs·0/2 td·45s ctrl
NC
Rodolfo BellatoLHW
Could Not Co…·R1·Jun '25
17 SS (63%)·10 abs·0/6 td·1 td taken·34s ctrl
L
Bo NickalMW
U-DEC·R3·Nov '24
47 SS (36%)·54 abs
L
Caio BorralhoMW
KO/TKO·R2·May '24
22 SS (46%)·36 abs·0/6 td·30s ctrl·1 kd taken
L
Brendan AllenVeteranTITLEMW
SUB·R3·Nov '23
6 SS (43%)·32 abs·0/2 td·2 td taken·34s ctrl·1 sub
W
Andre MunizMW
KO/TKO·R2·Jul '23
40 SS (49%)·24 abs·2/2 td·2 td taken·176s ctrl·1 sub
L
Johnny WalkerLHW
KO/TKO·R1·Jan '23
3 SS (38%)·16 abs·1 kd taken
L
Volkan OezdemirLHW
U-DEC·R3·Jul '22
33 SS (26%)·72 abs·0/15 td·1 td taken·7s ctrl
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CageQuant

Independent MMA analytics. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any promotion.
Statistics are informational only. Not betting advice.

© 2026 CageQuant. All rights reserved.

Follow on X